The possibility of a Trump 2024 Presidency is less far-fetched than some might think. Despite his loss in the 2020 election, Trump remains a highly influential figure within the Republican Party. His base of supporters remains strong, with many proudly displaying their Trump 2024 flag or wearing a Trump 2024 hat in support of their preferred candidate.
Donald Trump faces four formidable challenges to become President again in 2024. These hurdles, if successfully navigated, could pave the way for his return to the highest office in the land. Despite these formidable obstacles, Trump's established political base, his capacity to mobilize supporters, and his track record of defying political norms suggest that his candidacy should not be underestimated. The outcome of his legal cases, the political landscape in 2024, and the campaign dynamics will determine whether he can secure another term as President, promising an intriguing and unpredictable 2024 presidential race.
Trump 2024: Four Challenges to overcome For Trump to run for the presidency
This article will explore the prospects of Trump's presidential comeback in 2024, considering the factors that could influence his decision to run and his chances of success.
Challenge # 1: Trump's legal challenges:
Trump's Legal Challenges are one of the biggest hurdles to becoming President in 2024. Currently, several high-profile legal cases cast a shadow on Trump's political ambitions. Below is a brief of these cases and how Trump can navigate these cases
Hush Money Case: In March 2023, Trump was indicted by the Manhattan District Attorney on charges related to hush money payments to an adult film star in 2016, which threatened the integrity of the 2016 presidential election. Additionally, they allege he participated in an illegal scheme to withhold negative information, including a $130,000 payment. Notably, Trump has pleaded not guilty, vehemently denying any wrongdoing and saying he intends to challenge the charges in court. The legal issues are a significant obstacle that could affect his political future.
Classified Documents Case:Trump was indicted by a federal grand jury in Miami in June 2023 for obtaining classified defense documents from the White House while he was President and resisting government efforts to recover the materials. Both Trump and his adviser, Walter Nota, have pleaded not guilty. Subsequently, on July 27, the special prosecutor filed three additional charges against Trump, one of which was concealing national defense information. Two other charges were filed against Nota, and a new defendant named Carlos de Oliveira was added to the case. Oliveira was charged with four counts, including participating in a conspiracy to obstruct justice, as described in the original indictment. The legal process is expected to stretch into the 2024 election year.
Election Interference Case: Trump's third indictment stems from the special counsel's investigation into the former President and his associates' alleged attempts to overturn the 2020 election. The indictment accuses Trump and his co-conspirators of exploiting the chaos at the Capitol to persuade lawmakers to delay certification of the election. Another co-conspirator allegedly encouraged then-Vice President Mike Pence to break the law to postpone President Joe Biden's victory. The Trump campaign has vehemently denied the accusations and has pleaded not guilty to all four counts. The indictment names six co-conspirators whose identities have not been disclosed because it is common practice not to prosecute people who have not committed a crime. However, CNN has identified five co-conspirators based on quotes from the indictment and other contextual information. Judge Tanya Chutkan has scheduled the trial for March 4, 2024, just before primaries in more than a dozen states.
Fulton County case: A grand jury in Atlanta indicted Trump and 18 others on charges of trying to overturn the 2020 election. This is Trump's fourth criminal trial. The charges, led by Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, include some of the most blatant attempts by Trump and his associates to influence the 2020 election. Importantly, if re-elected in 2024, Trump would not have the power to pardon himself or his associates for state law convictions, unlike federal charges, nor would he be able to oust the Fulton County prosecutor. Trump entered a plea in court, not guilty and waiving his right to appear under Georgia law.
How Trump Can Navigate the Legal Challenges?
Overcoming these legal challenges will undoubtedly be a formidable task. However, there are several strategies and factors that Trump may employ or leverage to navigate these challenges and maintain his political ambitions for the 2024 presidential election:
- Appeal Process: The U.S. legal system is complex, and the procedures are lengthy. Trump's legal battles are likely to last beyond the 2024 election and, over time, may lose relevance in the eyes of voters. If Trump's legal team can clear up doubts about the validity of the charges or obtain a favorable verdict, it could strengthen his image as a victim of persecution. In the event of unfavourable legal verdicts, Trump can leverage the appeal process. Appeals can prolong legal proceedings, potentially extending beyond the 2024 election year. This can give him time and legal avenues to continue his campaign and maintain his political viability.
- Legal Defense: Trump has consistently maintained his innocence and pleaded not guilty to all charges. A crucial element of overcoming these legal challenges is a solid legal defense. This involves assembling a skilled legal team capable of challenging the charges, presenting evidence, and persuading juries of his innocence. Trump may tap into his financial resources to fund a rigorous defense.
- Public Messaging: Trump is renowned for effectively using public messaging and communication through social media and rallies. He can utilize these platforms to convey his perspective on the legal cases, framing them as politically motivated attacks or witch hunts. He can maintain public support despite the legal hurdles by continually reinforcing his narrative and galvanizing his base.
- Timing: The timing of these legal cases is significant. The trial for the Election Interference Case is scheduled for March 4, 2024, just before primaries in many states. Trump can strategically use this timing to his advantage, potentially portraying the trial as a last-minute effort by political opponents to derail his campaign.
- Focus on Policy: To shift the focus away from his legal troubles, Trump can emphasize his policy agenda and vision for the country. By presenting detailed and attractive policy proposals on critical issues like the economy, healthcare, and national security, he can redirect attention toward his vision for America rather than his legal battles.
- Mobilizing His Base: Trump's ardent supporters remain formidable in American politics. He can generate enthusiasm and voter turnout by maintaining close contact with his base and mobilizing them for campaign events, rallies, and grassroots efforts. The more voters he can bring to the polls, the better his chances of overcoming legal obstacles.
- Public Perception: Trump is known for shaping public perception and framing issues to his advantage. He can work on presenting himself as a victim of political persecution or bias, appealing to voters who see him as unfairly targeted by the legal system.
- State-Level Considerations: In the Fulton County Case, where Trump faces state law convictions, it's crucial to note that the President does not have the power to pardon himself or his associates. Trump may seek legal avenues at the state level to address these charges or even explore potential settlements.
- Alternative Strategies: Trump can also explore alternative political roles or platforms. If he faces insurmountable legal obstacles, he may consider endorsing and campaigning for a successor who shares his policy agenda, ensuring his influence continues beyond his potential candidacy.
Challenge # 2: Competition from fellow Republicans
The race for the 2024 Republican White House nomination is getting increasingly fierce, with a mix of establishment figures and dark candidates. They all have a common goal: to unseat the current leading candidate, former President Donald Trump, who continues to dominate national polls. The eventual winner will face President Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, in the November election. Here are some of the most prominent republican candidates;
Mike Pence: Pence kicked off his campaign with a speech in which he sharply criticized Donald Trump, signaling the unraveling of their former alliance in the wake of the Capitol insurrection. His political background includes serving as vice president and governor of Indiana, and he is known for his adherence to conservative values. However, his refusal to support challenges to the election results led to a falling out with Trump.
Chris Christie: Christie initially aligned himself with Trump and led his transition team. However, he became an outspoken critic after the Capitol riots. His tenure as New Jersey governor was marred by scandal during his second term, including bridge road closures and accusations of political vendetta against the Democratic mayor. Christie described Trump as a television star unfit to be President and firmly rejected the possibility of him returning.
Ron DeSantis: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has worked hard to emulate Trump's political style and is often seen as the candidate with the most potential to challenge Trump directly. 2018, with Trump's support, he achieved a stunning re-election victory in the 2022 midterm elections by more than 1.5 million votes, the most significant margin in the state's history. For the first time during his tenure, Florida's Republican voter registrations exceeded those of Democrats.
Tim Scott: Sen. Tim Scott has a decades-long career in South Carolina politics. He entered the race in May with nearly $22 million in cash, more than his rivals. Notably, he is the only Black person to have served in either house of Congress. He has represented South Carolina in the Senate since 2013.
Born to a single mother and the grandson of a cotton field worker, Scott often recounted his family's rise "from cotton to Congress" throughout his life. The centerpiece of his 2024 campaign is to revitalize "a nation in retreat" and revive America's "great culture."
Scott was well-liked by his colleagues and quickly gained the support of two senators, including the second-ranking Republican in the House, John Thune. However, he faces competition from other South Carolina Republicans who have also entered the race.
Nikki Haley: Nikki Haley stepped into the presidential ring in mid-February as the first major Republican candidate committed to challenging Trump. Haley was once hailed as one of the Republican Party's most promising young talents but has recently lost her political profile.
Haley, born in South Carolina to Punjabi Sikh immigrants, became the country's youngest governor in 2009. In 2015, she gained national attention for advocating for removing the Confederate flag from the South Carolina Capitol. Although she initially declared in 2016 that she was "not a fan of Trump," she eventually accepted Trump's nomination to be U.S. ambassador to the United Nations — a term marked by a dramatic tirade while speaking to a Palestinian courier. She was withdrawn from the United Nations Security Council meeting.
Vivek Ramaswamy: Vivek Ramaswamy, a 37-year-old Indian-American biotech entrepreneur with no political experience, Harvard and Yale graduate, believes the country is dealing with a national identity crisis stemming from the erosion of faith, patriotism, and meritocracy. From 2014 to 2021, he ran a pharmaceutical company before co-founding Strive Asset Management, which actively avoided "divisive" environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) frameworks. Instead, Strive Asset Management is positioning itself as an alternative to larger companies like BlackRock.
Asa Hutchinson: Former two-term Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson announced his candidacy for President in an interview with ABC News in April, just days after Trump was indicted in New York. Hutchinson, 72, called Trump's legal troubles "a sideshow and a distraction" that should force him out of the race.
Hutchinson's resume includes positions ranging from prosecutor and businessman to U.S. Congressman and head of the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA). He described himself as a "non-Trump" candidate based on his experience and record in leadership positions, emphasizing his commitment to "common sense and consistent conservatism."
How Trump is faring in GOP Polls?
Despite a series of accusations against Trump, the release of a photo of him in August, and his absence from the first Republican debate, he currently leads the Republican presidential candidate by more than 40 points, according to a recent poll. He enjoys first-choice support from 59 percent of Republican primary voters across the state. By comparison, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has an approval rating of 16%, followed by former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley at 7% and former Vice President Mike Pence. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie's was 7% and 4%, respectively.
Challenge # 3: Navigating the swing state decisions
The 2020 election showed Trump coming very close to winning with relatively narrow vote margins in critical states. By effectively targeting and mobilizing his base, adapting to changing political dynamics, and maintaining his dominance among the Republican Party, Trump has a legitimate chance of winning the 2024 election.
- Narrow margins in crucial states: The 2020 election showed that victory in several battleground states hinged on razor-thin margins. Just 11,000 more votes in Arizona, 20,000 more in Wisconsin, and 12,000 in Georgia would have tipped the Electoral College in Trump's favor. This shows the competitiveness of these states and emphasizes their importance in electoral calculations.
- Voter Turnout: Elections often depend on voter turnout. Trump has demonstrated an unparalleled ability to galvanize his base. He could garner the extra votes needed to win if he can maintain or increase his support levels.
- Changing political landscape: The political landscape is constantly changing and is affected by various factors. These include the current government's performance, the economy's state, and international events. If those elements are consistent with Trump's message, voters could prioritize more pressing issues, blunting the impact of his legal challenges.
- Electoral College advantage: Trump's strategy may focus on securing victory in crucial battleground states rather than prioritizing the national popular vote. This approach used successfully in 2016 and much of 2020, would allow him to strategically target certain swing states to ensure an Electoral College victory even if he loses the popular vote.
- Campaign strategy: Trump's campaign can learn from past mistakes and improve its design for 2024. This could include targeting specific demographics, improving the ground game, and using digital advertising and social media more effectively.
- Political polarization: The United States has become increasingly polarized in recent years. Trump's ability to mobilize his supporters and garner enthusiastic support could give him a significant advantage, especially if turnout among his supporters remains high.
Still, political dynamics are subject to change, and the outcome will depend on various variables, including the Democratic nominee and the country's state at the time.
Challenge # 4: Capitalizing on the economic woes of Biden
Ultimately, the financial situation may play a decisive role in the outcome of the 2024 elections. While President Joe Biden is seeing significant improvement in the overall economy, concerns about inflation remain, albeit to a lesser extent. Recent social media posts have expressed growing dissatisfaction with Biden's policies and performance as President.
A recent ABC poll underscored that sentiment, showing Biden's overall approval rating now at 37 percent. The rating aligns with May's data but is down from the 42% recorded in February. Additionally, a Post-ABC poll showed that 56% of Americans disapprove of a Biden presidency, consistent with other recent polls. Overall, numerous significant elections show that President Biden's approval ratings continue to decline and that most Americans are dissatisfied with his administration.
On the contrary, recent polls show increasing support for Donald Trump. This suggests growing approval and approval of Trump's political stance and his likely candidacy, as reflected in recent polls.
Although Donald Trump currently faces significant challenges and legal obstacles, he still has a chance to be re-elected as President in 2024. Trump's established political base, his ability to rally supporters, and his history of defying traditional political expectations suggest he should not be underestimated as a candidate. The outcome of his legal case, the political landscape during the election, and the campaign dynamics will ultimately determine whether he can achieve that goal. However, history shows that the political world can always throw surprises. American voters eagerly await the 2024 presidential race drama, in which Donald Trump could make another comeback.
Header Photo by Polina Zimmerman